Daily summary: Dollar rout after NFP, Gold back on the rise

USA

• The market is temporarily looking away from earnings season and the Strait of Hormuz, focusing instead on macroeconomic data. A major downside surprise in the NFP reading has significantly changed market expectations for Fed policy. Expectations for a Fed rate hike by year-end are now hovering around 30%. Major US indices are reacting with moderate gains in the 0.5% to 1% range.
• The Persian Gulf is in a brief phase of de-escalation. Iran and Oman are preparing to begin talks on an agreement intended to create corridors for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Given Iran’s stance, indicating an intention to charge fees and refusing to include the US in the talks, the chances of success remain low, even if the sides have temporarily stopped exchanging fire.
• Many signals from the Arabian Peninsula suggest Saudi Arabia may opt for a significant escalation, including a ground invasion in Yemen, to neutralize the threat from the Houthis.

Company news, USA

• OpenAI: The company behind ChatGPT announced the existence of a model called “Astra.” Details are scarce, but everything suggests it is meant as a response to Anthropic’s “Mythos.”
• Atlassian Corp: Reported phenomenal growth in Q2 2026. The stock is up more than 30% at the US market open. The company clearly beat expectations across all categories, with accounts receivable growth around 40% standing out.
• Cloudflare: Revenue and profit expectations were beaten by around 5%, but management guidance was the focus. On the back of demand for cloud solutions, year-end revenue is expected to exceed USD 2.86 billion. Shares are up about 15%.
• Airbnb: The short-term rental platform operator posted Q2 2026 results showing 17% revenue growth, significantly above expectations. Shares are up about 8%.
• Hertz: The car rental company is continuing its rally on the back of Q2 results. According to some analysts, the World Cup proved to be a turning point and the company managed to deliver EPS nearly twice as strong as the market expected.

Macroeconomic data, USA

• NFP came in at minus 23k versus expectations around 80k. None of the major investment banks or research centers published an accurate forecast. More and more questions are being raised about data quality and the true state of the US labor market. Negative revisions to previous months’ data do not improve the outlook.
  • Average hourly earnings growth also slowed. On a monthly basis, the pace fell to 0.1% versus the expected 0.3%.
  • The unemployment rate also declined, from 4.2% to 4.1%. However, this is a result of lower labor force participation.
• Thomas Barkin from the New York Fed held a conference today where he shared comments on AI and the labor market. He noted that AI’s impact on productivity remains unclear, and that the best measure of labor market conditions is the unemployment rate.

Europe

• Falling expectations for Fed hikes are also supporting European indices. The leader is Germany’s DAX, with futures up about 0.5%. Moderate declines, limited to 0.5%, are seen in Poland’s WIG20 and Spain’s IBEX.

Company news, Europe

• Genmab A/S: The Danish biotech company is up about 10% and raised its guidance after strong results. Its success is supporting valuations of other sector names, including Novo Nordisk, Abivas, and Zealand Pharma.
• Kingspan: The insulation manufacturer is up 15% after a significant increase in full-year profit guidance. The company is expected to benefit from improving data center efficiency.
• Daimler: The truck manufacturer is down about 3% after results. Improved profitability in the US was not enough to offset an overall decline in orders.

Macroeconomic data, Europe

• German data surprised to the upside, showing industrial production growth higher than expected. The release showed 0.2% m/m instead of 0.1%. This is a slowdown versus the previous month’s 0.7% rise.
• Germany’s trade balance fell more than expected, showing a surplus of EUR 15 billion instead of EUR 17 billion.
• French unemployment in Q2 2026 rose to 8.3% (previously 8.1%).

Forex

• The FX market is completely dominated today by a sharp decline in the dollar. The more dovish Fed monetary policy now expected by the market is putting strong pressure on the US currency.
  • The yen and the Swiss franc are up 0.6% versus the USD. The euro and the pound are up about 0.3% to 0.4% versus the USD.

Commodities

• Sugar is up more than 5%. This reflects forecasts of a supply deficit, driven by weather, but also by increased ethanol production for the fuel market.
• Oil prices are not reacting to further headlines from the Middle East, but the sell-off in European gas is deepening by 4%, reaching EUR 55.
• The shift in market expectations for Fed policy is supporting gold and silver, up 2.2% and about 3%, respectively.

Crypto

• Sentiment in the crypto market is mixed, with a tilt toward pessimism. Larger coins are clearly performing better.
  • Bitcoin is up 0.3%, holding the USD 64,500 level.
  • Solana is up about 0.7% and moves back above USD 73.
  • Ethereum is also up 0.3% and returns above USD 1,900.