{"id":986,"date":"2026-07-27T22:29:08","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T22:29:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/%f0%9f%94%b4european-ttf-gas-prices-fall-by-7-5\/"},"modified":"2026-07-27T22:29:08","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T22:29:08","slug":"%f0%9f%94%b4european-ttf-gas-prices-fall-by-7-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/%f0%9f%94%b4european-ttf-gas-prices-fall-by-7-5\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud83d\udd34European TTF gas prices fall by 7.5%"},"content":{"rendered":"

\ud83d\ude80 Experience Ultra-Low Latency Trading<\/a> — \ud83d\udee1\ufe0f Trade with a Regulated Global Broker<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

Natural gas prices in Europe (the Dutch TTF benchmark) recorded a sharp decline on Monday. The nearest expiring contract lost as much as <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>8.5%<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>, dropping for a moment below 58 EUR\/MWh. Last week, the price closed several times above 60 EUR\/MWh. Although daily highs in March were higher, at the end of last week we saw the highest close since 2023.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Is market optimism justified?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

In the short term, the price drop brings relief, but long-term market fundamentals require great caution:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Temporary de-escalation:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> The suspension of fighting gave the market a breather and reduced concerns about an immediate interruption of supplies from the Persian Gulf.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
  • Direction of US LNG:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> Price differences make shipping LNG from the US to Europe currently more profitable than to Asia, which may support supplies to the Old Continent.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
  • Prices still at a high level:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> Despite Monday’s drop, gas in Europe is still <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>more than 80% more expensive<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> than before the outbreak of the conflict in February and 100% higher compared to the beginning of the year.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
  • Low storage levels:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> European gas storage levels are currently at just <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>~55%<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>, compared to a 5-year average of <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>~71%<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
  • Drop in LNG imports:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> The 30-day average volume of LNG imports to Europe is as much as <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>23% lower<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> than the 5-year average.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
  • Supplier caution:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> QatarEnergy is offering to sub-charter its vessels until the end of October, which suggests there is no rush to restore full traffic in the Persian Gulf.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Storage filling in Europe is 55%, very similar to 2021, when prices in September reached 100 EUR\/MWh. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    Is there a risk of a return to 100 EUR\/MWh?<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

    The risk of another sharp price increase (including testing higher price levels) remains very high. Storage filling is not accelerating, and the prospects for additional imports remain limited.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    • Fragility of the ceasefire:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> The current decline is due to the suspension of attacks, not a lasting peace agreement. As Citigroup analysts point out, the market is extremely sensitive and individual headlines can immediately reverse the trend.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
    • Race against time before winter:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> The slow pace of filling storage (55%) combined with logistical difficulties creates a risk that Europe will not manage to rebuild stocks before the heating season.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
    • Higher summer consumption and competition with Asia:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> Heat waves in Europe and Asia increase demand for energy (air conditioning), which intensifies competition for available LNG cargoes on the spot market.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Current gas price behavior is very similar to what happened in 2021, when they reached 100 EUR\/MWh in September. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \u00a0<\/p>\n

      Gas prices are key to the European economy<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n

      Although gas consumption increases extremely during the winter season and the raw material is used to the greatest extent for heating then, a large part of European industry is based on gas. This causes a significant increase in costs and a limitation of competitiveness (in the field of petrochemistry or also metal refining). Consequently, the terms of trade for the euro are almost 100% correlated with the gas price, which leads to large changes in EURUSD.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      TTF and EURUSD since 2025. It is worth noting that such levels in 2025 gave us EURUSD very close to parity. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      In the shorter term, a significant correlation can be seen. If gas were to fall to around 40 EUR\/MWh, it would give a chance for EURUSD to be around 1.18. Source: xStation5<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      TTF is undergoing a correction today, stopping near the 23.6 retracement. Key support is at 52 EUR\/MWh. Source: xStation5<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

      \n\u00a0\n <\/div>\n

      XTB.COM<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      \ud83d\ude80 Experience Ultra-Low Latency Trading — \ud83d\udee1\ufe0f Trade with a Regulated Global Broker \u00a0 Natural gas prices in Europe (the Dutch TTF benchmark) recorded a sharp decline on Monday. The nearest expiring contract lost as much as 8.5%, dropping for a moment below 58 EUR\/MWh. Last week, the price closed several times above 60 EUR\/MWh. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","","category-gold-commodities-trade-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/986","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=986"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/986\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=986"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=986"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=986"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}