{"id":1316,"date":"2026-08-15T00:37:10","date_gmt":"2026-08-15T00:37:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wall-street-goes-full-bull-on-gold-as-rate-hike-bets-recede-main-street-maintains-bullish-majority-with-fed-minutes-on-the-menu\/"},"modified":"2026-08-15T00:37:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T00:37:10","slug":"wall-street-goes-full-bull-on-gold-as-rate-hike-bets-recede-main-street-maintains-bullish-majority-with-fed-minutes-on-the-menu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wall-street-goes-full-bull-on-gold-as-rate-hike-bets-recede-main-street-maintains-bullish-majority-with-fed-minutes-on-the-menu\/","title":{"rendered":"Wall Street goes full-bull on gold as rate-hike bets recede, Main Street maintains bullish majority with Fed minutes on the menu"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\"Wall<\/p>\n

\n

(Kitco News) \u2013 Gold prices pushed higher this week, as fading expectations for a September Fed rate hike helped the precious metal extend its August rebound despite intermittent pressure from a firmer dollar, rising oil prices, and profit-taking.<\/p>\n

Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $4,342.50 per ounce on Sunday evening, and the yellow metal moved steadily higher through Monday and Tuesday as traders positioned for the week\u2019s U.S. inflation data. The rally accelerated Wednesday after July CPI came in largely in line with expectations, easing concerns that the Federal Reserve would need to tighten policy in September and helping gold prices push to a 10-week high. Spot prices ultimately set their weekly high at $4,450.23 per ounce on Thursday before sellers took over.<\/p>\n

Gold prices pulled back sharply Thursday after softer wholesale inflation data reduced its appeal as an inflation hedge and prompted traders to take profits following the four-day rally. The metal remained under pressure into Friday as oil prices climbed on continued uncertainty around the war with Iran and Treasury yields also edged higher, with spot gold setting its weekly low at $4,311.22 per ounce early on Friday.<\/p>\n

The decline proved short-lived, however, after Friday morning\u2019s U.S. retail sales report showed an unexpected 0.6% drop, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would likely leave rates unchanged at its September meeting. Gold prices recovered into the close as rate-hike expectations faded, with the precious metal finishing the week modestly higher.<\/p>\n

\"article<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street experts overwhelmingly bullish on the precious metal\u2019s prospects, while Main Street sentiment also held in firmly bullish territory heading into next week.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cUp, but modestly,\u201d said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management.\u00a0\u201cThe ongoing conflict between the prospects for higher rates on the one hand and weaker fiscal conditions on the other is keeping gold in a trading range, with very firm support on the downside, but not yet willing to rip higher.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cDown,\u201d said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. \u201cFundamentally speaking, nothing has changed with the gold market. Central banks continue to provide support while investment money ebbs and flows. Of the financial numbers released this past week, the one that stood out to me was the US defect growing by $432 billion during July, reportedly the largest monthly gap since March 2021. The bottom line is this should continue to reduce global confidence in the US dollar, putting pressure on the greenback, making real inflation an ongoing issue.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cRiding this train of thought further, gold should find long-term buying interest,\u201d Newsom said. \u201cSo why do I think the market could move lower next week? From a technical point of view, the December futures contract is in position to move into a short-term downtrend on its daily close-only chart. If so, it could see a selloff next week.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI like gold higher next week and look for a test on the 200-day moving average near $4503,\u201d\u00a0said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. \u201cGold has not been above it since the first week in June.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cUp,\u201d said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. \u201cThe rate of increase of both consumer and producer price inflation cooled slightly last month. Prices are still rising, but they are doing so more slowly. That, coupled with a net loss of new jobs and an increase in new jobless claims, has given investors a belief that the Federal Reserve will not increase interest rates at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cGold has surged on this latest data, bouncing strongly off the consolidation lows near $4,000 per ounce,\u201d Checkan said. \u201cThe bias is clearly upward.\u201d<\/p>\n

Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker at StoneX Group, told Kitco news that despite gold\u2019s gains over the last two weeks, he doesn\u2019t see the broader rally resuming just yet.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think energies are driving the narrative right now, and they seem to be range-bound,\u201d he said. \u201cSame thing with metals, it’s pretty range bound. We got this bounce up in gold in the December contract. Looking at a continuous chart, it\u2019s trapped above the 200-day moving average, but below the displaced 200-day moving average \u2013 which is a little bit longer term \u2013 it\u2019s kind of range bound within that gap.\u201d<\/p>\n

The question now, Pavilonis said, is what\u2019s going to be the catalyst for prices to move decisively higher \u2013 and data probably won\u2019t cut it. \u201cWe need a flare up in geopolitics, some kind of kinetic situation that would spur gold demand in some way or another,\u201d he said. \u201cBut in terms of the economic data coming out, it’s not great, it’s not bad. Inflation’s kind of sticky\u2026 food prices are a little bit higher, but commodity prices across the board are not exceptionally high. We’ve seen higher highs plenty of times prior to this.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need some kind of a driver here, and we’re just not there yet,\u201d Pavilonis said. \u201cObviously there’s interest in the metals. You’re seeing order flow going into the long side, but not like it was before, just back up the truck and load up on the stuff. The big catalyst would be something that would drive it to new all-time highs.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAre we just getting a corrective rally here? If it is a corrective rally, it’s a very cautious rally.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pavilonis said this week\u2019s data was positive on balance in terms of lowering rate-hike expectations, but he still sees the market addressing rates over the medium term rather than the Fed.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe PPI report that we just saw was favorable to not raising rates, and the reality is that we’re probably not going to raise rates,\u201d he said. \u201cWhat I think the market is really looking for is rates to go up by themselves, not for the Fed to try to do whatever it’s doing. If you look at the curve, the 30-year is above 5%. That’s telling. When all this stuff first started happening, when we were talking about lowering interest rates, the back and forth with Powell and all this other stuff, it was still relatively low. It was the front end of the curve that was moving higher. Now you’re seeing the back end of the curve move higher. We’re just trapped with so much debt.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI think you could be long metals, I think you could be long gold, but not overweight.\u201d<\/p>\n

What Pavilonis believes would really drive gold and silver higher is fear of runaway price pressures and\/or currency devaluation.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe’re in a sideways market, but if inflation starts to turn up in a situation where people might start thinking about hyperinflation, I think you could see the metals really take off,\u201d he said. \u201cIf we’re talking about stockpiles moving around, or out of U.S. markets and moving it into other markets, it’s stories like that I think really capture the headlines, that really start to move this stuff. Right now, I think you have the solid base of investment in the metals, but you don’t have the GameStop-type of scenario we saw at the tail end of last year into the beginning of this year.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pavilonis warned, however, that on the technical side, gold could be forming a multi-month head-and-shoulders top.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the market does not make new highs here, it could possibly be another leg down\u2026 to $3,300, something like that. That’s something to keep an eye on.\u201d<\/p>\n

This week, 10 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street sentiment swinging massively bullish following the week\u2019s supportive data and price action. Nine experts, or 90%, expected to see\u00a0gold prices gain further ground during the week ahead, while only one, representing 10% of the total, predicted a price decline. None predicted sideways trading for next week. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, 222 votes were cast in Kitco\u2019s online poll, with Main Street investors maintaining their two-thirds bullish majority after gold\u2019s sustained move above $4,300. 150 retail traders, or 68%, looked for\u00a0gold\u00a0prices to rise once again next week, while 38 others, or 17%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining 34 investors, representing 15% of the total, expected to see consolidation during the week ahead.<\/p>\n

\"article<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Next week\u2019s economic news calendar will feature U.S. manufacturing and housing data, with Wednesday’s July FOMC minutes providing the clearest indication of how the Fed balancing persistent inflation against signs of slowing economic growth.<\/p>\n

The data kicks off on Monday morning with the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, followed by Tuesday\u2019s publication of July Housing Starts and Building Permits, with Pending Home Sales coming later.<\/p>\n

The week\u2019s main event will likely be the Wednesday afternoon release of the FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 monetary policy meeting, which will be closely scrutinized for details on policymakers’ views of inflation, economic growth and the appropriate path for interest rates.<\/p>\n

Then, Thursday morning will see the release of weekly jobless claims, along with the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.<\/p>\n

The week concludes with Friday morning\u2019s Flash S&P Global Composite PMI, offering an early snapshot of August\u2019s private-sector business activity.<\/p>\n

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, expects gold prices to build on this week\u2019s positive performance.\u00a0\u201cSticking with up, as there was a wide-open door for more profit taking this week and buyers are going into the Friday close with a really strong outing, so it doesn\u2019t look like this current momentum breakout is finished yet.\u201d<\/p>\n

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at investingLive, told Kitco News\u00a0that even though this week\u2019s CPI and PPI reports sapped the rate-hike bid, he doesn\u2019t think gold\u2019s recent gains are being driven primarily by the data.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat do I really think is driving it? I think it’s the yen intervention,\u201d he said. \u201cIt says a lot to me. America has officially had a strong dollar policy forever, and they’ve abandoned it. They’re actively weakening their currency. Americans are at war with the dollar.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Treasury Department obviously thinks it’s a lever they need to pull. They’re leaning on Japan to hike rates, and it looks like they’re going to get their wish in September or so. But they want the dollar much lower. There are all these endless rumors about trouble in the Treasury market, and we saw this week again, a record for July, we’re going to run a $2 trillion deficit.\u201d<\/p>\n

Button also noted yesterday\u2019s sale of 30-year Treasuries, which demanded an extremely high yield. \u201cIt was the most since 2001. That’s twenty-five years,\u201d he said. \u201cThere’s this fine line between higher yields and worrisome debt.\u201d<\/p>\n

Looking ahead to next week\u2019s releases, Button said the minutes from the Federal Reserve\u2019s July meeting will be more significant than they have been of late.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn terms of FOMC minutes, it’s a more interesting one,\u201d he said. \u201cThree dissenters. We don’t know where a lot of the rest of them stand. It’s going to be a market-mover. I wonder if it reads dovish\u2026 but it’s always \u2018a few, several members, a few members, most members\u2019\u2026 you’re reading between the lines.\u201d<\/p>\n

And while he believes gold is unlikely to see any sustained upside until the seasonals pick up later in the fall, Button said traders are growing more confident about the yellow metal\u2019s near-term support.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou feel a lot better about $4,000 on the downside, for sure,\u201d he said. \u201cSeasonally, you’ll probably have to wait for November \u2018til those flows really help. A lot starts to come together then. You can imagine there’s some sort of resolution in Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIf it can hold above $4,300, I think you’d feel pretty good. Today’s price action is the best signal so far this week.\u201d<\/p>\n

Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, expects gold prices to climb higher next week.<\/p>\n

\u201cHaving started the week by building on the upward momentum seen at the start of the month, the price of gold experienced a corrective pullback of $140 after touching $4,450 in the spot market and $4,500 on some futures contracts,\u201d he said. \u201cNevertheless, buying picked up again towards the end of the week, confirming the short-term nature of the profit-taking following the technical break of the downtrend seen in previous months.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cGold clearly wants to take a breather following the rally at the start of August as it approaches an important resistance zone,\u201d Kuptsikevich said. \u201cThe 200-day moving average (a key signal line for the long-term trend) is currently near $4,500. This level also previously served as significant support and is now viewed as resistance. To consolidate above this line, gold needs not only to clear the way upwards by resolving short-term overbought conditions, but also to receive a sufficiently reliable fundamental signal, which could come in the form of a further weakening of the US dollar coupled with a softening of the monetary policy outlook.\u201d<\/p>\n

Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, expects to see gold prices rise next week.<\/p>\n

\u201cHIGHER,\u201d he wrote. \u201cIn a Higher time frame: I cautioned on 8\/16\/18 the break above $1,183.0 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $4,443.1. These are OFF HOLD. We held exhaustion with a 56268 high and rolled over $1,1.1. This is ON HOLD. On a medium timeframe basis: The trade below 52554 projected this down $740 (+)\u2014we attained $1,300.0. The trade below 52036 brought in $1,248.2 of pressure. The trade below 51606 brought in $1,205.2 of pressure. These are ON HOLD. We held exhaustion with a 49177 high after a pullback and rolled over $962.3. The break below 48185 projected this down $185 (+)\u2014we attained $863.1. The trade below 47923 projected this down $205 (+)\u2014we attained $836.9. The break below 47420 brought in $786.6 of pressure. On 5\/15 we left a medium bearish reversal\u2014we have come off $597.8 from 45532. We held exhaustion with a 44036 high and rolled over $448.2. On 6\/18 we left a minor bearish reversal\u2014we have come off $323.9 from the 42793 open. These are ON HOLD. We held macro exhaustion with a 39554 low and bounced $553.7\u2014if this holds and we start a bona fide bullish correction, the minimum target is 49636. This is OFF HOLD.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cOn a lower timeframe basis: In the (Z) we held exhaustion with a 40190 low and bounced $490.1,\u201d Moor said. \u201cThe trade above 41192 has brought in $389.9. On 8\/4 we left the minor bullish reversal\u2014we have rallied $386.7 from the 41224 open. The break above 41389 projects this upward 80.00 min, 345.00 (+) max\u2014we attained $370.2. On 8\/5 we left a major bullish reversal\u2014we have rallied $203.9 from the 43052 close. The break above 44170 (-3.6 tics per\/hour) has brought in $92.1 of strength, but if we fail back below, look for decent pressure. A maintained gap lower will leave a minor bearish reversal.\u201d<\/p>\n

At the time of writing,\u00a0spot gold last traded at $4,376.82 per ounce for a gain of 0.84% on the week and 0.59% on the day.<\/p>\n

\"article<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

See live<\/em>\u00a0precious metals prices<\/em> for gold, silver, platinum and palladium \u2014 in USD, CAD and 12 more currencies.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Kitco.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u26a1 Trade with Ultra-Low Spreads on IC Markets! \u2794 [Link] \ud83c\udf81 Get Your Exclusive XM Deposit Bonus Now! \u2794 [Link] \ud83d\udca1 Master the Markets with FXTM Copy Trading \u2794 [Link] (Kitco News) \u2013 Gold prices pushed higher this week, as fading expectations for a September Fed rate hike helped the precious metal extend its August …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1316","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","","category-gold-commodities-trade-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1316","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1316"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1316\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1316"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1316"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1316"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}