{"id":1078,"date":"2026-08-04T14:13:45","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T14:13:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wall-street-trisected-on-golds-near-term-prospects-main-street-bulls-in-minority-as-market-looks-to-july-payrolls-for-direction\/"},"modified":"2026-08-04T14:13:45","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T14:13:45","slug":"wall-street-trisected-on-golds-near-term-prospects-main-street-bulls-in-minority-as-market-looks-to-july-payrolls-for-direction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wall-street-trisected-on-golds-near-term-prospects-main-street-bulls-in-minority-as-market-looks-to-july-payrolls-for-direction\/","title":{"rendered":"Wall Street trisected on gold\u2019s near-term prospects, Main Street bulls in minority as market looks to July payrolls for direction"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\"Wall<\/p>\n

\n

(Kitco News) \u2013 Gold prices saw another choppy week, as dip-buying and softer inflation data helped the precious metal defend the $4,000 level, while the Federal Reserve\u2019s hawkish hold, rising Treasury yields, and renewed oil-driven inflation concerns capped the rebound.<\/p>\n

Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $4,051.51 per ounce on Sunday evening, and pushed higher through Monday as traders continued to buy weakness near the lower end of gold\u2019s recent range. The move stalled Tuesday as markets turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve\u2019s rate decision, with elevated oil prices and persistent inflation concerns keeping yields supported.<\/p>\n

Gold broke below $4,050 on Wednesday morning and briefly lost the $4,000 support level, with spot prices ultimately setting their weekly low at $3,995.90 per ounce. The yellow metal recovered before the Fed held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, but three dissentions in favor of a hike gave little reassurance that policy easing was coming, with buyers stepping back in as traders digested the Fed\u2019s latest message and positioned for upcoming inflation data.<\/p>\n

The strongest rebound came Thursday after softer PCE inflation helped cool some of the market\u2019s rate-hike concerns, pushing gold back above $4,100. Spot gold ultimately set its weekly high at $4,119.82 per ounce at midday Thursday, but the rally faded Friday after the Employment Cost Index came in slightly hotter than expected, lifting Treasury yields and pressuring the metal into the close.<\/p>\n

After failing to hold above $4,100, spot gold was last trading at $4,048.40 per ounce Friday afternoon, leaving the metal nearly flat but slightly lower on the week.<\/p>\n

\"article<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street evenly divided between bulls, bears, and the fence, while Main Street sentiment slid out of bullish territory after another failed breakout.<\/p>\n

\u201cUnchanged,\u201d said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. \u201cThere needs to be more back and forth in the price until markets have come to a conclusion on the outlook for monetary tightening ahead. The market also needs clarity on the conflict in the Middle East; when that ends, the dollar will lose its safe-haven premium, and that will also be positive for gold. For now, though, the market needs clarity before moving convincingly higher.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cSideways,\u201d said Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com. \u201cNothing has changed with the gold market. And that\u2019s what makes its continued sideways trend more interesting. Investors continue to hop around from sector to sector, looking for the next volatile spike rally or selloff, while central banks around the world continue to buy gold. Of the two, the latter is the better indicator of the economic trouble always lurking just under the surface. And we know where the epicenter of that trouble is.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cFor now, I\u2019m expecting the December futures contract to yo-yo back and forth across $4,129.50 on its daily close only chart, the midpoint between the low daily close of $4,048.70 (July 16) and $4,210.30 (July 22),\u201d Newsom said.<\/p>\n

\u201cUp,\u201d said James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com. \u201cThe 4k level still doesn\u2019t look like it wants to give way in spot gold. The run in yields is pretty much the negative scenario, but despite that, buyers have still held the line at 4k, so I\u2019m going to stick with my long-term bias until logic dictates a shift.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI am neutral on Gold for the coming week,\u201d said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. \u201cIt appears to still be consolidating around $4,000.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cUnchanged,\u201d said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. \u201cThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left U.S. Interest rates unchanged. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index moderated slightly. The conflict in Iran is spreading to new fronts. As a result of all of this and a slightly stronger U.S. dollar, I don\u2019t see gold moving sustainably higher just yet.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cSupport at $4,000 sets the bottom end of the range,\u201d Checkan added. \u201cThe factors above cap the high end. We have an extended opportunity to buy gold well while it lasts.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker at StoneX Group, told Kitco News that he\u2019s very bullish on gold and silver now, as he doesn\u2019t believe rate hikes are on the table anytime soon, but he expects one more break lower before the rally resumes.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith the Fed announcement, even though there’s three dissensions, I think it’s positive for gold,\u201d he said. \u201cIt opens the door for a September rate hike, but I don’t know\u2026 the way the Fed\u2019s moving, and the comments after the fact, I got the impression that they’re not going to be doing any rate hikes over the next couple of months despite the inflation numbers that we are having. It’s a tough spot here to start raising rates for them politically. And I don’t think that they’re going to move in that direction.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cOverall, I am very bullish for metals. Despite the three objections, I think it still bodes well for gold and silver,\u201d Haberkorn said. \u201cHowever, with the Iran war going on and seeming like it’s picking up again, I think for next week, gold and silver are going to remain under pressure, and will continue to stay in this sideways range market.\u201d<\/p>\n

Haberkorn said he\u2019d actually like to see gold break below its recent lows, because he believes this could provide the catalyst for the next leg higher.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt feels like gold needs one washout to $3,800 before it can get its footing back, to show some support,\u201d he said. \u201cOil is up again today and putting pressure on metals. Equities are a little softer here, so it feels like risk-off considering what’s going on in the energy markets.\u201d<\/p>\n

Haberkorn said he doesn\u2019t think a September rate hike would fly at the Fed, for political reasons.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don’t think it’s in the cards right now,\u201d he said. \u201cI think the pressure on them if they start hiking rates in September… I know they’re supposedly independent, but I don’t think they have it in them to do a hike here coming up in September.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the other hand, Haberkorn said Warsh would probably be fine with the markets pricing in a hike and then being surprised with another hold, though he or other FOMC members may try to lay the groundwork for this despite his insistence on no forward guidance.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think he’ll be happy to surprise markets with no hike, and have messaging along with it,\u201d he said. \u201cHe was put in by Trump. Trump wants cuts, actual cuts, now. [Warsh] does have a board, and he’s got to get around a board and all that. I think he’s going to politically toe the line here for the time being, and keep rates unchanged, unless some situation arises.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cIt feels like the Iran war is going to heat up here a little bit more, and energies are going to trade a little higher,\u201d he said. \u201cI think gold and silver will start acting like gold and silver at some point, and be a flight-to-safety trade, because I think people will see the Fed behind the eight ball right now. They should raise rates to tamp down inflation. But, politically, are they able to raise rates?\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Fed’s stuck in a bad spot for the moment,\u201d he added. \u201cI don’t think we have the appetite to raise rates right now.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI think to have one more washout, just on the expectations that there is a hike coming in September \u2013 which I don’t think will happen \u2013 would be beneficial for this for the longer term, for the bulls,\u201d he said. \u201cI think there is a floor around four thousand, but a dip below there I think would be bought up fairly quickly, and a dip being to about $3,800, out of this channel.\u201d<\/p>\n

Haberkorn said he sees metals trending lower in the near term as energy prices rise once again, but believes gold could still break to the upside at some point without this final dip. \u201cIf it doesn’t work out that way, if it breaks out of this channel and goes higher, I’m willing to adjust accordingly, and to get in at a higher price if I have to, around $4,300 or $4,400 or something along those lines.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAt some point we will break out of this channel here,\u201d he added. \u201cOn expectations for a Fed hike, it’s more likely that we break down to the downside for a short term-move. Then the Fed doesn’t cut rates in September, and we see this big move start up for the fall in precious metals, like what we saw last year.\u201d<\/p>\n

This week, 17 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street sentiment split into three nearly equal parts after an equally indecisive performance from the yellow metal. Five experts, or 29%, expected to see\u00a0gold prices gain ground during the week ahead, while six others, representing 35% of the total, predicted a price decline. The remaining six analysts saw the yellow metal continuing its sideways chop next week.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, 184 votes were cast in Kitco\u2019s online poll, with Main Street investors losing their bullish majority after gold stayed stuck in its recent channel. 87 retail traders, or 47%, looked for\u00a0gold prices to rise next week, while 55 others, or 30%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining 42 investors, representing 23% of the total, expected to see further consolidation during the week ahead.<\/p>\n

\"article<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Next week\u2019s economic news calendar revolves around employment, with multiple measures of the U.S. job market coming out, culminating in July\u2019s nonfarm payrolls report. Markets will also receive key services and manufacturing sector surveys.<\/p>\n

The week kicks off Monday morning with the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI for July, and Tuesday morning brings the first look at employment with the JOLTS job report<\/p>\n

Then on Wednesday, traders will be watching July\u2019s ADP employment data, followed by the ISM Services PMI, with weekly jobless claims released on Thursday morning.<\/p>\n

The week wraps up with the Friday morning release of Nonfarm Payrolls for July.<\/p>\n

\u201cGold has not proved itself,\u201d said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. \u201cIt traded mostly sideways last week in a $3996-$4116 range. It held above $4000 for the past two sessions. It fell about 0.60% this past week, despite a weaker USD and softer short-term US rates. The resumption of hostilities in the Middle East failed to spur a sustained rally in oil (Sept WTI snapped a three-week 30% advance), and while this seemed to reduce the need of oil importers to sell oil, it failed to help the yellow metal. It looks weak going into Aug. The year\u2019s low was recorded on June 30 near $3943.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, told Kitco News that the $4,000 per ounce support level is looking pretty firm, and the gold price is likely to move higher in the near term as it follows seasonal trading patterns.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don’t think many people want to sell below $4,000,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s been a stopper on the downside. Of course, we’ve slipped below it a few times, but we came right back up above it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lusk said even though gold is still negative on the year, there\u2019s a potential seasonality play coming into focus. He said he expects the yellow metal to make some gains in the next few weeks before backing off a little bit in September. \u201cThen, you buy it back in October going into Diwali.\u201d<\/p>\n

He said the November midterms represent a risk to the seasonal trade, but added that the weeks leading into Christmas, then through Chinese New Year and Valentine\u2019s Day in February should provide support for gold prices.<\/p>\n

On the market\u2019s expectations for a September rate hike, Lusk said he thinks that oil prices will come down one way or another as we head into year-end, and this will ease the inflationary pressures, making rate hikes moot. He said that the U.S. and Iran will either come to a lasting agreement which ends the threat to oil shipments in the region, or the various workarounds such as pipelines and other shipping lanes will be scaled up and reinforced, blunting the impact of Iran\u2019s attacks.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat’s going to take a lot of the inflationary pressures out of the market,\u201d he said, \u201cso you’re going to have less of a need [for rate hikes].\u201d<\/p>\n

Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, expects gold prices to decline further next week.<\/p>\n

\u201cDespite some upward momentum during the week, gold has failed to establish a solid uptrend,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThe current sideways movement, fluctuating between $4,000 and $4,200, is the best the bulls can manage. Moreover, over the past week, gold has decoupled from equities, as the latter\u2019s recovery rally at the end of the week took place against a backdrop of a steady sell-off in gold.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cLast week\u2019s narrative remains valid: gold bulls are unable to turn the market towards growth after three years of gains, but they are also reluctant to relinquish the psychologically important $4,000 mark for long,\u201d Kuptsikevich said. \u201cUptrends in gold often begin in August\u2013September, but in bear markets, September has also frequently seen intensified selling.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAnother point to note is that if gold closes the week below the spot price of $4,007, this will mark the fifth consecutive month of decline,\u201d he added. \u201cIn 2022, the run was longer but not quite as deep, and the closest parallel would be 2012\u20132013, when an 8-month decline of one-third was followed by two years of a bear market, albeit with a less pronounced fall.\u201d<\/p>\n

Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, expects to see gold prices fall next week.<\/p>\n

\u201cLower UNLESS we break decently above 41397 (-4.5 tics per\/hour starting at 9:20 am EST) \u2014a ‘decent’ penetration is $18.6 until the close,\u201d he wrote. \u201cIn a Higher timeframe: I cautioned on 8\/16\/18 the break above $1,183.0 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $4,443.1. This is ON HOLD. We held exhaustion with a 56268 high and rolled over $1,651.1. This is ON HOLD. On a medium timeframe basis: The trade below 52554 projected this down $740 (+)\u2014we attained $1,300.0. The trade below 52036 brought in $1,248.2 of pressure. The trade below 51606 brought in $1,205.2 of pressure. These are ON HOLD. We held exhaustion with a 49177 high after a pullback and rolled over $962.3. The break below 48185 projected this down $185 (+)\u2014we attained $863.1. The trade below 47923 projected this down $205 (+)\u2014we attained $836.9. The break below 47420 brought in $786.6 of pressure. On 5\/15 we left a medium bearish reversal\u2014we have come off $597.8 from 45532. We held exhaustion with a 44036 high and rolled over $448.2. On 6\/18 we left a minor bearish reversal\u2014we have come off $323.9 from the 42793 open. These are ON HOLD. We held macro exhaustion with a 39554 low and bounced $260.1\u2014if this holds and we start a bona fide bullish correction, the minimum target is 49636. This is ON HOLD.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cOn a lower timeframe basis: We held exhaustion at 41795-2324 with a 42155 high and rolled over $252.5,\u201d Moor said. \u201cThis is ON HOLD. In the (Z) we held exhaustion with a 40190 low and have bounced $211.0. Yesterday left the minor bullish reversal warned about below\u2014we rallied $47 tics from the 41332 open. These are ON HOLD. The failure back below 41442 (-4.5 tics per\/hour) now warns of decent pressure. Get long on a decent penetration above 41397 (-4.5 tics per\/hour starting at 7:00 am) and\/or on a pullback thereafter and look for decent strength. Get long on a decent penetration above 41596 (-4 tics per\/hour) and\/or on a pullback thereafter and look for 55.00 min, 370.00 (+) max. If we break above decently and back below decently, look for decent pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n

At the time of writing,\u00a0spot gold last traded at $4,045.16 per ounce for a loss of 1.10% on the week and 1.42% on the day.<\/p>\n

\"article<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n

Kitco.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u26a1 Trade with Ultra-Low Spreads on IC Markets! \u2794 [Link] \ud83c\udf81 Get Your Exclusive XM Deposit Bonus Now! \u2794 [Link] \ud83d\udca1 Master the Markets with FXTM Copy Trading \u2794 [Link] (Kitco News) \u2013 Gold prices saw another choppy week, as dip-buying and softer inflation data helped the precious metal defend the $4,000 level, while the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1078","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","","category-gold-commodities-trade-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1078","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1078"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1078\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goontrading.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}