Economic Calendar: US Inflation Key for Markets — Today’s Most Important Data Release of the Week

Wednesday’s trading session in financial markets will be dominated by key consumer inflation (CPI) releases. The main focus for global investors will be this afternoon’s US CPI reading for July. The data will have a direct impact on expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path at upcoming meetings. Earlier in the day, markets will assess Germany’s final inflation figures, which will provide a clearer picture of price pressures in the eurozone’s largest economy. Given today’s data releases, elevated volatility is expected across FX markets, equity indices, and government bond yields.

Macroeconomic Calendar

• 08:00 Germany – Final CPI inflation (YoY) for July: 2.8%. Consensus: 2.8%. Previous: 2.3%.

• 08:00 Germany – Final HICP inflation (YoY) for July: 2.8%. Consensus: 2.8%. Previous: 2.4%.

• 08:00 Germany – Final CPI inflation (MoM) for July: 0.8%. Consensus: 0.8%. Previous: -0.3%.

• 08:00 Romania – CPI inflation (YoY) for July. Consensus: 7.9%. Previous: 10.4%.

• 09:00 Poland – BIEC Future Inflation Indicator for August. Consensus: N/A. Previous: 88.7.

• 10:00 Italy – Final CPI inflation (YoY) for July. Consensus: 2.8%. Previous: 3.0%.

• 13:00 US – Weekly Mortgage Applications. Consensus: N/A. Previous: -2.9%.

• 14:30 US – CPI inflation (YoY) for July. Consensus: 3.4%. Previous: 3.5%.

• 14:30 US – Core CPI inflation (YoY) for July. Consensus: 2.5%. Previous: 2.6%.

• 14:30 US – CPI inflation (MoM) for July. Consensus: 0.1%. Previous: -0.4%.

• 14:30 US – Core CPI inflation (MoM) for July. Consensus: 0.2%. Previous: 0.0%.

• 14:30 Canada – Building Permits (MoM) for June. Consensus: -1.0%. Previous: -1.7%.

• 16:30 US – Weekly DOE crude oil inventories. Consensus: -0.5 million barrels. Previous: +2.48 million barrels.

• 16:30 US – Weekly DOE gasoline inventories. Consensus: -1.6 million barrels. Previous: -1.64 million barrels.

• 20:00 US – Federal Budget Balance for July. Consensus: -USD 295 billion. Previous: -USD 120.3 billion.

3 Markets to Watch

1. EUR/USD – The US CPI release at 14:30 will be the main volatility catalyst for the currency pair. A lower-than-expected reading could weaken the US dollar and support a move toward resistance levels, while higher inflation would likely strengthen the greenback.

2. S&P 500 (US500) – Any surprises in the US inflation data will affect expectations for the Fed’s interest-rate path, with a direct impact on investors’ risk appetite and equity valuations.

3. Crude Oil (WTI / Brent) – The DOE fuel inventory report at 16:30 will provide an update on US demand during the peak driving season. With crude inventories expected to decline by 0.5 million barrels, the data could provide a catalyst for further moves in oil prices.